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Nonprofit Risk Severity and Likelihood

August 28, 2020

In a previous video we defined risk for nonprofits in order to establish a good financial plan.

Every risk has two important features:

Severity and Likelihood

Severity describes degree of pain, loss or pressure that results from a particular risk. And it could be measured in lots of ways: money, health, reputation, time. You name it: if it can be lost, it’s a way to measure risk severity. Low severity risks can be a minor inconvenience while high severity risks could bring irreversible damage or collapse an organization.

Likelihood describes the probability or frequency a risk will occur over a specific time period. Low likelihood risks happen very rarely, while risks with very high likelihood occur constantly.  

Combining risk impact and risk likelihood into a matrix can help an organization prioritize which risks is should address.

Plot Likelihood on the bottom from “Rare” to “Certain” and Severity on the left-hand side from “Negligible” to “Catastrophic”.

Risks that land in the red area of the plot should be addressed first. These are risks that are potentially severe AND have a high likelihood of occurring. For example, the risk of injury or loss of life while working in a war-torn city.

Risks that land in the amber area of the plot are next to be considered. These risks are potentially severe but have a lower chance of occurring or have a smaller financial or operational impact but are almost certain to occur. For example, fraud or fundraising errors.

By analyzing risks by their Severity and Likelihood, the organization can take a planned and deliberate approach to managing risks without having to guess what makes the most sense from a financial, time or mission perspective.


Talk to the financial experts at Fairlight Advisors to learn more about managing your nonprofit’s investments. Schedule a free consultation today! 

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Fairlight Advisors

At Fairlight, we are uniquely positioned to combine our investment experience with a strong working knowledge of the nonprofit ecosystem in order to bring targeted and effective solutions to bear on today’s nonprofit needs. We work with both teams and individuals to manage risk and optimize investments so our clients’ time is free to continue their primary social mission. We’re hands-on, personal, and we get results.

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